In a recent Friday briefing, Thielen laid out a compelling case for bitcoin surging to $70,000, buoyed by a cocktail of monetary forces, the broader macroeconomic backdrop, the rhythm of the U.S. election cycle, and a slow but steady uptick in interest from traditional financial players funneling money into bitcoin ETFs.
January’s Tepid Performance in a Long-Term Bull Market
Though bitcoin has enjoyed gains in 10 out of its 13 birth years, its January track record tells a more erratic tale — with a near-even split of seven positive Januaries versus six that saw declines, according to Thielen’s analysis.
Lessons From Last Year’s Predictions
Reflecting on his projections from twelve months ago, Thielen came close to the mark, forecasting bitcoin would nearly double to around $45,000 by the close of 2023. Despite missing the mark on his January prediction that spot ETFs wouldn’t receive approval once more, he correctly foresaw the dip back into the mid-to-high $30,000 range early this year.
Fed Moves, Inflation Trends, and Political Cycles: The Bullish Trifecta
Thielen pointed out that even though the Federal Reserve has deferred the anticipated first rate cut possibly till May or June, inflation rates are easing and economic growth remains resilient—two factors providing a sturdy foundation for bitcoin’s enthusiasm. Layering on the U.S. presidential election cycle, which historically syncs with bitcoin halving years, he noted this alignment as a powerful tailwind.
Historical Data Snapshot: Bitcoin’s price jumps during halving election years underline this bullish streak—recording impressive climbs of 152% in 2012, 121% in 2016, and a staggering 302% in 2020, averaging a robust 192% surge.
Current Market Pulse
As the market stands at present, bitcoin has retreated roughly 4% year-to-date, settling near $42,700 at the time of this report, setting the stage for the potential upward bounce Thielen anticipates.
