By 2028, JPMorgan’s strategists anticipate the stablecoin market expanding to around $500 billion — a figure that notably trails behind some of the more optimistic projections estimating a valuation between $1 trillion and $2 trillion within the same period, as highlighted in the Wall Street bank’s recent research note.
A Grounded Perspective on Stablecoin Expansion
In a detailed analysis authored by strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, JPMorgan adopts a cautious stance on the future growth of stablecoins, emphasizing that demand emanating from within the crypto ecosystem itself — rather than wide-scale payment adoption — remains the engine fueling stablecoin utilization.
“Projections envisioning an explosive surge from the current $250 billion stablecoin market to somewhere between $1 trillion and $2 trillion over the next several years strike us as overly optimistic,” the research team underscored.
What Are Stablecoins?
Stablecoins are digital currencies pegged to tangible assets such as the U.S. dollar or gold. They serve a critical function in crypto markets, acting as payment rails and tools for cross-border money transfers, among other uses.
Crypto-Native Demand Dominates Usage
According to JPMorgan analysts, approximately 88% of today’s stablecoin demand stems from crypto-native activities—including trading, collateral in decentralized finance (DeFi), and idle reserves maintained by crypto companies. Payments, by contrast, account for a modest 6% slice of use.
Even when assuming favorable conditions, the report suggests that the adoption of stablecoins for payment purposes would only slightly nudge the overall market cap upward.
Barriers to Mass Migration
JPMorgan also casts doubt on any significant migration from conventional bank deposits or money market funds toward stablecoins, citing issues such as low or nonexistent yields and the complexities involved in moving funds between fiat currencies and crypto.
Furthermore, the research highlights that stablecoins differ fundamentally from centralized digital payment solutions like China’s e-CNY or platforms such as Alipay and WeChat Pay. These traditional systems operate under centralized control, unlike the decentralized nature of stablecoins.
The Realistic Trajectory: Moderate, Crypto-Centric Growth
Ultimately, the bank anticipates stablecoins will follow a path of steady, modest growth driven primarily by crypto ecosystem needs rather than widespread consumer adoption.
Contrasting Views and Legislative Impact
Some financial institutions maintain a more bullish stance on stablecoins’ prospects. For instance, Standard Chartered projects that upcoming U.S. legislation, notably the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (Genius) Act expected to pass soon, could catalyze nearly a tenfold increase in stablecoin supply.
According to Standard Chartered’s April research report, the legislation “would further legitimize the stablecoin industry,” potentially boosting the total stablecoin supply from approximately $230 billion today to an estimated $2 trillion by the end of 2028.
Key Figures at a Glance
| $250 billion |
| $500 billion |
| $2 trillion |
| 88% crypto-native activities, 6% payments |
